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Event: 'Seminar: Improving Short Range Climatology Forecasts - Is It Possible? '

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Date: Friday, August 01, 2008 At 14:30
Duration: 1 Hour 30 Minutes
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Speaker: Mark Jelinek

Title: “Improving Short Range Climatology Forecasts - Is it Possible?"

Where and when:  August 1st, 2008. Departamento de Geofísica, 2nd Floor.

 

Abstract
Since man could communicate it is likely that he was also prognosticating about the weather and in particular about the impact it had on food supplies.  Over time our ability to link current weather patterns with future outcomes increased, both casually and scientifically.  In the 1980s our ability to more accurately predict future season climate behavior appeared to take a big step forward as we began to better understand the link between large scale features like El Niño/La Niña and future climate patterns and at the same time be able to predict the future El Niño/La Niña patterns themselves.  With this discovery amongst others, climate prediction seemed to blossom, however the last ten to fifteen years would provide examples suggesting our techniques may not be as sound as they needed to be and skepticism would continue to grow in these forecast.  During this same period, the issue of global warming appeared to turn the primary focus of climate prediction to much longer time scales.  However, there now appears to be a forecast user driven demand to determine if it is feasible to improve our short range (2 weeks to 1 year) climate prediction skills.  We will examine three case studies that explore this issue to see if it is conceptually possible or if we have really reached hard limits in our ability based on current knowledge.  These case studies explore climate events ranging from the tropical cyclones to mid-latitude streamflow patterns to polar snowpack behavior; all looking to answer the question: Improving Short Range Climatology Forecasts - Is it Possible?



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